Which states will be most affected if Canada cuts electricity to the U.S.?

Amid increasingly retaliatory trade wars between the U.S. and major exporting nations, a Canadian official has announced that cut off electricity supply to some U.S. states should the trade war continue.

At a mining convention in Toronto, Ontario’s premier Doug Ford warned that if Trump proceeds with punitive import tariffs, Ontario could halt electricity exports to the United States. And he’ll do it “with a smile,” he said via The Toronto Sun. “They rely on our energy. They need to feel the pain. They want to come at us hard, we’re going to come back twice as hard,” Ford threatened.

The states most affected if Canada stops supplying electricity

According to the U.S. Energy Information istration (EIA), on a net basis, Canada exports electricity mostly to New England, New York, and Midwest states. Ontario alone powers 1.5 million homes and businesses annually. Meanwhile, the U.S. exports electricity primarily from the Pacific Northwest states to the Canadian province of British Columbia.

The U.S. imported around 27,220,531 megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity from Canada in 2024 according to the latest EIA data. That number s for only a small part of the total power supply in the U.S., but Canada’s supply comes in handy during demand spikes. Conversely, the U.S.’s supply to Canada aids the country during low hydropower production. “Customers in western Canada and in the U.S. Northeast can access low-cost hydropower resources from the other side of the border,” adds the EIA.

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Midwest Reliability Organization, and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council also ensure that “power flowing across U.S.-Canada transmission lines helps maintain the stability of the North American eastern and western power grids.”

What is Ford threatening to do?

🚨 BREAKING: Doug Ford just went nuclear on Trump’s tariffs—threatening to slap a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to New York, Michigan, and Minnesota.

And if things escalate? Ontario is ready to cut the power off completely.

Ford isn’t playing around. Canada has already… pic.twitter.com/8r4siHUSl2

— Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) March 4, 2025

As reported by Brian Allan on X, Ford will retaliate by placing a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. In a written statement, Ford added, “I won’t hesitate to increase this surcharge or, if necessary, shut the electricity off completely.”

Ford says he will take this action if Trump’s 25% import tariff “persists” or if the U.S. president introduces additional ones. “This surcharge would be in addition to actions Canadian governments are already taking,” he explained. “Canada earlier today imposed an initial round of $30 billion in retaliatory tariffs and is preparing another $125 billion in additional tariffs.”

In addition, Ontario’s alcohol agency, the largest alcohol buyer in the world, is already removing U.S. products from shelves, costing American producers $1 billion. Ford continued, “We’ve banned all U.S. companies from participating in $30 billion in annual government procurement.”

What tariffs have already been introduced?

According to a White House fact sheet (can we call it that when it uses the term “illegal aliens?”) dated Feb.1, 2025, Trump is implementing a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China on top of the previous 10%, making China’s tariffs a total of 20%. Energy resources from Canada will have a lower 10% tariff. The Trump istration claims the tariffs are to discourage illegal immigration and drug trafficking across the U.S. border in light of the fentanyl epidemic.

New retaliatory tariffs resulting from the trade war include:

• China tariffs of up to 15% on a wide array of U.S. farm exports
• Canada announced $100 billion (U.S. dollars) of American goods, implemented over 21 days
• Retaliatory tariffs are to be announced by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Sunday, March 9, 2025

Several sources, including commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, have said Trump is considering a compromise with Mexico and Canada. Whether that comes to fruition is anyone’s guess. Trump will continue to throw his weight around in the meantime, placing the burden on already struggling consumers in an increasingly challenging economy