‘Eh, we’ll see’: Republicans doubt Elon Musk will keep his promise to stop bankrolling elections

This represents a sharp reversal from Musk’s earlier commitments. Following Donald Trump’s victory in November 2024, Musk had posted on social media that he would keep grinding away at election funding and play a significant role in primary elections. His political action committee, America PAC, became a major force in the 2024 election cycle, spending over $260 million to Republican candidates and causes.

The timing of Musk’s announcement comes after several political setbacks that may have influenced his decision. According to Politico, his groups contributed more than $19 million to Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel, a Republican who ultimately lost by 10 percentage points. Additionally, Musk has faced criticism for his role as the public face of the Department of Government Efficiency, while his car company, Tesla, has encountered financial headwinds.

Virginia Republicans were counting on Musk’s financial

Virginia Republicans had been anticipating Musk’s involvement in their gubernatorial race, where competitive statewide contests are expected this year. GOP gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears faces a significant cash disadvantage against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, making potential outside funding particularly valuable for Republican efforts.

However, Virginia Republican officials remain doubtful about Musk’s commitment to step back from political spending. When asked about Musk’s decision to withdraw as a GOP donor, one Virginia Republican, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, responded with skepticism, saying whether Musk actually stops contributing remains an open question.

The uncertainty extends beyond Virginia to other key battleground states. In Pennsylvania, both Republicans and Democrats are preparing for Supreme Court races where three justices face retention votes in November. Democratic operatives have already begun discussing Musk’s potential involvement, with reports suggesting he may have already invested $1 million in these races, though this could not be verified through campaign reports.

Democratic strategists expect Musk to continue political spending through less transparent channels. Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge, a major Democratic super PAC, believes Musk will start moving money through nonprofits and other dark money organizations. This approach would allow continued political influence while maintaining a lower public profile.

Some Republican consultants acknowledge the unpredictable nature of Musk’s political involvement. Josh Novotney, a Republican consultant, suggested that while Musk may mean his current announcement, every election presents unique circumstances that could motivate him to become active again in the future. This sentiment reflects broader uncertainty within Republican circles about losing access to such substantial financial resources from their most significant donor.